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Case Study · E-commerce · Organic Social

Two thirds of the revenue came from a following I never paid for

A small Shopify store, run end to end: $11,113 in sales at a 4.08% conversion rate, with roughly 68% of revenue traced to an Instagram audience grown organically to 15,000.

4.08%
Store conversion rate
$11,113
Total sales
941
Orders
15,000
Instagram followers, organic
By Matthew Kerr Street Outfitters · 2018–2019 6 min read

Short version

I want to be upfront about the size of this: eleven thousand dollars is a small store. It is not a business anyone should be impressed by on revenue alone, and I am not going to present it as one.

What makes it worth writing up is the shape of the numbers, because that shape is the thing that transfers.

The numbers, in full

MetricResultTypical small store
Revenue$11,113
Orders941
Average order value$11.81varies hugely
Conversion rate4.08%~1.4–2%
Implied sessions~23,000
Revenue from Instagram~$7,516 (68%)
Revenue from everything else~$3,597 (32%)

Divide it out and the interesting fact appears immediately: the store did not have much traffic. Roughly 23,000 sessions over its life. Plenty of local businesses get that in a quarter and sell nothing.

It converted at twice the usual rate, on an audience I built rather than bought.

Why the conversion rate was high — and why that's less impressive than it sounds

4.08% against a 1.4–2% median looks like a big win, and part of it was real. But the honest explanation is mostly two things, and only one of them is skill.

Price. Average order value was $11.81. Conversion rate scales inversely with price, more or less always — a $12 impulse purchase converts far more easily than a $1,200 considered one. Comparing conversion rates across price points is close to meaningless, and anyone quoting you a conversion benchmark without mentioning average order value is skipping the important half.

Traffic source. Two thirds of visitors arrived from an Instagram account they had chosen to follow. They already knew the brand, the aesthetic, and roughly what things cost. That is a fundamentally warmer visitor than someone who clicked an ad, and warm traffic converts better regardless of what the site does.

Which is the actual lesson, and it is not "get good at conversion optimization."

The part that transfers

An audience you own converts better than traffic you rent, and it keeps converting after you stop spending.

The paid side of this store — Meta and Google Ads with pixel tracking — worked fine and accounted for the other third. But it stopped the moment the budget stopped. The Instagram following kept producing sales on days I did nothing at all, because the distribution was already built.

For a local business the same logic holds, even though the channel has changed:

The caveat that matters most

This ran in 2018 and 2019. Organic reach on Instagram was substantially easier then than it is now, and I would not promise anyone the same result on the same channel today.

I am flagging that because it is the single biggest reason to discount this case study, and you would be right to. What survives the caveat is the structural point — owned audience beats rented traffic — not the specific tactic. Today I would be pointing at email and repeat customers, not at organic Instagram reach.

What I'd do differently

Two things, both about the same mistake: I optimized the top of the funnel and ignored the back.

An $11.81 average order value is low, and I never seriously attacked it. Bundles, a threshold for free shipping, a second item at checkout — any of those move AOV, and AOV multiplies against every order you already have. It is the cheapest revenue in e-commerce and I left it alone.

I also never built an email list properly. I had 15,000 followers on a platform I did not control, and no owned channel behind it. When reach dropped, the audience went with it. The list was the asset I should have been building the whole time, and the Instagram following should have been the thing that fed it.


Common questions

Is a 4% e-commerce conversion rate good?

It is well above typical. Most small store benchmarks put the median somewhere between 1.4% and 2%, so 4.08% is roughly two to three times that. The caveat is that conversion rate scales inversely with price: a store selling $12 items converts far more easily than one selling $1,200 items, so comparing across price points tells you very little.

Can organic social still drive most of a store's revenue?

It did here, at roughly 68% of revenue, but that store ran in 2018 and 2019 when organic reach on Instagram was materially easier than it is now. The transferable part is not the channel, it is that an audience you own converts better than traffic you rent. Today the same logic points more toward email, SMS and repeat customers than toward organic Instagram reach.

What matters more for a small store, traffic or conversion rate?

Conversion rate is usually the cheaper lever, because traffic costs money and conversion improvements are free once made. This store took about 23,000 sessions to produce 941 orders. At a 2% conversion rate the same revenue would have needed roughly twice the traffic, which for a paid channel means roughly twice the budget.

Matthew Kerr

I built and ran Street Outfitters end to end — storefront, branding, merchandising, fulfilment, ads and the Instagram account. Every figure here came out of that Shopify admin.

Now I run Kerr & Company in Grand Rapids, building websites and marketing systems for local businesses.

Related

Renting all your traffic, or building any of it?

Send me your site and I'll tell you where your revenue actually comes from, and which part of it stops the day you stop paying.

If the mix is already healthy, that's a fine answer and I'll say so.